Interesting read from Rediff: http://www.rediff.com/money/2008/jun/02mrv.htm
Why would a brokerage firm such as Goldman sachs dole out a free bee analysis to the world, instead of privately telling its own clients for a fee to take long positions in oil ?
Goldman sachs didn’t share its inside information on subprime fallout few years ago? It privately shorted exotic derivatives and banks that were heavily immersed in subprime mess. It may have also shared this information with all its fee paying clients to make money out of americans misery.
I bet Goldman sachs is on the wrong side in Oil trade and hence the free super spike analysis. This is the best indicator that Oil is peaked and is on a downward trend.
Oil may go up based soley on dollar weakness and not on demand. American demand for OIL is more than that of combined demand of China( one third) and India (one eigth). So emerging countries are not responsible for spike in Oil prices. Also OPEC countries should accept basket of currencies for their oil as Dollar may loose its sheen and may be worthless in future.
If, OPEC countries keep on increasing price of OIL, their imports may cost more as food grain producing countries may not export them at all. This may force OPEC countries do barter trade
food for oil, services for oil, metals for OIL type trades instead of dollars for oil.
OPEC countries are piling dollars which may not buy much for them in future.
oil already at $146 a barrel.still think the theory is a sham??
By: sbasrur on July 3, 2008
at 12:00 pm
Absolutely.
Look for Oil price to fall under $100 as soon as US starts hiking the short term interest rates.
By: Sridhar Kondoji on July 3, 2008
at 6:04 pm
The great descent has already started. Oil has droped more than $25 from its peak and this will only slide more going forward.
The key here is the people who started cutting down on their expenses and usage of oil. This is the biggest factor in slumping oil as of now. However, if FED keeps the rates unchanged or starts pushing them up, then see a huge drop in Oil again.
Thanks
sri
By: Sridhar Kondoji on August 5, 2008
at 2:10 pm
Oil today is below $70.
Goldman geeks where are you.
You are toast and your business model of investment banking is toast.
We don’t need your analysis which is completely wrong and contributed to the over speculation in OIL.
Thanks
sri
By: Sridhar Kondoji on October 16, 2008
at 7:31 pm