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Indian markets bottomed now. Sensex could rally from here

US Fed could reduce key rate in its Wednesday meeting (October 29) and this could set a stage for rally in Gold, Rupee etc. This rally in rupee can tame the inflation and thus GDP number could climb back to 8% in coming months.

The rise in Dollar value is just a temporary phenomenon and Hedge fund redemptions causing market mayhem is almost over. I am seeing positive signs and vibes and leads me to believe that sensex could easily rally 20% in short period of time.


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Firing is alleged to have taken place in Mumbai bus

As per news paper source, firing reported in Mumbai bus  on Andheri-Kurla route.

More details awaitd.

Sensex tumbles 300 points continuing its slide.

Filed under: Finance India, India blogs, Indian Bloggers, , ,

UPA and Left could work again in next parliamentary elections


  • Possibility of patchup between UPA and Left
  • Possibility of early elections as soon as February 2009
  • SP could be a conduit between UPA and Left

Signs are emerging for a coalition between UPA and left parties. UPA’s top leadership have not written off left parties even after they broke away from the government in a strong opposition to civil nuclear deal with USA. This was the most pragmatic foward looking step  UPA has done and is going to pay huge dividends for the next elections.

PM Manmohan signh has always said that he is willing to work with Left to keep the sfaron parties away from power.  Left parties have vehimently opposed UPA in general and congress in particular and have cornered themselves in their blind opposition to any strategic partnership with USA.

Left parties should be credited for their opposition to blocking economic policies of UPA. However, Left parties have opposed economic policies for their hatred towards USA and not because they know or understood capitalism. Indirectly India has benefited now and we can appraoch Capitalism with more care now and much more regulation.

If there is some sort of breakthrough in relationships between UPA and congress then we could expect early elections as soon as February 2009.

BJP will be the sole biggest looser in this saga and will not be able to capture power if UPA and Left can partner again in 2009 elections. With the recent revelations of involvment of hindu outfits in terror at malegaon and also involvment of VHP and Bajarang dal in terrorising christians, BJP may loose support of mainstream India. In such a situation, UPA and Left should speed up patching their relationship and capture the power at the center again. In this patchup political party SP may become a conduit between UPA and Left parties.

The biggest challenge going forward would be to convince left in changing their stance against USA. Year 2009 will be a big year for India in terms of its growing clout globally. There is one more chance in year 2009 to fight for UN permanent seat and India needs support of USA.  Left can also help us getting Chinese support for not blocking India’s advances towards veto yielding permanent UN seat. Left should also be more open towards better capitalism and more regulation.

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Consolidation in outsourcing space

Top 3 outsourcing companies in India are Infosys, TCS and Wipro. With bankruptcies and consolidation in Banking and non banking sectors in United States, life could be tough for top 3 outsourcing giants.

IT spend in coming months could be slashed drastically affecting the top line and bottomline of the outsourcing behemoths in India.  Reduced IT spend, exchange ate fluctuations, competetive billing rates due recession/depression in United states has put a spanner in the growth prospects of Indian outsorcing companies.

In order to remain viable, it is must for consolidation in India outsorcing space. THere are lots of outsourcing companies with different expertise in india that can be easily gobbled up  by  top 3 india outsourcing companies.

IBM has grown to big in Indian IT space and its time for Indian IT gaints to concentrate on India.

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How can ICICI bank assure investors and depositors?

Every bank’s lifeline is depositors and they should do all they can to assure them that their deposits are put to good use and promise a reasonable return.
Recently, we have see almost all banks take too much risk with the depositors money and or have over leveraged irrationally the deposits and their credibility.

ICICI bank is the first lasrgest private bank in India and is alleged to be at risk to the subprime mortgage mess of the west.

Depositors in the south have queued up to the local branches and are withdrawing their money and so are investors fleeing the stock.

Top management, instead of playing lip service should come out and do the following immediately.
1) Assure the investors by way of investing their personal wealth in common stock in open markets. They should do this as soon as this monday (oct 13th 2008).
2) They should openly come out clean on their total risk investments in CDOs, CDSs. As of now, they are only saying that their expossure is very little compared to the liquidity they have.
This type of assurance is of no use and market will continue to punish the common stock. They have to come out clean on their MTM accounting details and the price they are assigning to these risky derivatives.
3) They should also tell us, if they have any expossure to Iceland’s crisis.

I have been shouting at ICICI bank’s lack of clarity on their MTM model of reporting losses. Now is the time, they have to come clean. More they sleep on this, more the common stock is going to sink.
This coming monday could be a bloodbath, if they continue to delay and pay lip service.

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ICICI bank’s risk rises

Read Bloomberg report and it is very scary.  The CFO, Chairman and other officials at ICICI bank will do good buy buying shares of ICICI bank in open market to reassure the panic sellers. Instead of refuting the rumours, they should invite high networth individuals to invest in thier company. I am surprised that even Finance minister is coming to the rescue of the ICICI bank. There are several examples from the past few weeks, where even CEO had no clue as to what their company is in. Wachivia bank CEO said live on a cramer show, that his company was great and will take the benefits of recent crisis only to report Bankruptcy within a week.

Even if ICICI bank is safe, its earning potential and growth is vastly minimized because of several reasons.
a) Most of their earnings will go towards insuring their bonds.
b) Most of their earnings will eavaporate due to losses in CDOs.

I have already said that ICICI bank stock is at risk and its share price will drop below RS 300.
I will not buy ICICI stock, unless the CEO, CFO and other executives buy their own stock in open market.

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Capitalism and Free markets are dead for long time to come

Capitalism and free markets reared its ugly head that went too far on its own without regulation. Politicians had no clue about the negative side of this new phenomenon and gave into the greedy executives and economists.

Today there are no winners including Warren Buffet. No one can be considered rich given the situation we are in. Whether you were spendthrift or frugal, whether you live in your own means are on credit we all are in black hole with dim future.

We are not too far where we have to carry bags of dollar notes to buy loaf of bread.

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Warren Buffet has no choice but to dole out more Billions

Warren Buffet has to do more buying without the guarantee of positive returns. All the rich people who made big have to throw their money in to save the economy. If they don’t, then their Billions will be worth just millions in no time.

His warning of economic pearl harbour will take the toll on everybody including Warren Buffet. Nobody is immune to this collapse, since we all are invested in the markets we created.

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Group of 7 meeting of finance ministers in Washington tomorrow (Oct 9th, 2008)

Group of 7 finance ministers are going to meet and discuss the current global financial crisis. It is not known, if they have any action plan for tomorrow’s meeting. However, they don’t have any control over the crisis and are not going to be successfull. They have to invite emerging countries finance ministers from India, China and South Korea. Gorup of seven will be group of loosers at the end of this financial crisis and there is no other alternative to taking pain now and cruising towards success later. No amount of LipStick to old and tired lips is going to make look good anymore.

The best option available now is to let the dollar value tumble and house prices crash. Liberalize immigration policy to let foreigners come and settle in United States and let them buy homes here. This will help stabilize the markets and United States will get needed foreign currency through which it can buy imports.
Biggest looser will be Opec and China as they are the biggest holders of Dollars. Terrorism will also loose its steam as there will be no funding for it to survive from OPEC.

America needn’t struggle to save jobs at investment banks as these banks shouldn’t have been there in the first place. America should strengthen its manufacturing base and start exporting it to Asia, Europe and Africa as these products will be affordable there because of crashed dollar.
Americans will be happy at the end.

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Why buy a premium domain, when you can register a domain for less than 10 bucks?
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