Indian bloggers mania: sridhar kondoji

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Attack on Pakistan almost certain — fallout of Mumbai terror

Ongoing elections, general elections next year, growing anger among India citizens and to thwart public campaign of BJP UPA has few options but to respond to the Mumbai terror. There is every likelyhood of taking out terroristic infrastructure in POK and elsewhere. US, UK may also join the mission or atleast force Pakistan in doing the job. It will be very hard for UPA to explain the mumbai terror. This cannot be left unanswered, if it did, then chances of complete rout for UPA is 100%.

There are many firsts in the Mumbai terror.
a) LeT a Pakistan based Terror group has shown the capabilities of a regular army by using naval route to attack India. This is a very dangerous precedent and almost shaken the entire intelligence apparatus of US, UK, Israel etc.
b) Intelligence aid from US, UK, Israel to India has happened for the first time.
c) India taking on terrorists without negotiations is also of first occurrence.
d) External affairs minister Pranab warning of a direct action to Pakistan’s external affairs minister is also a first occurrence of its kind.
e) US, UK TV channels airing continuously in their countries on terror in India is also first of its kind, that never happened before.

The deafening silence from Indian authorities in Government over the past 24 hrs shows the seriousness with which it is working out on this terror incident. There is no flow of information from government circles and utter secrecy that is maintained on their next moves is startling.

Attack on Pakistan is almost certain now. This is my feeling and there are multiple reasons. Reasons later, but scenarios under which this can happen are
a) Attack on Pakistan is already happening from US and Nato forces on Pakistan western borders. This is not new thing. However, US forces may extend that attack deep into Pakistan destroying Terrorists camps of Pakistani groups can happen. This will be just an extension of US’s Pakistan strategy and fits into its overall south asia strategy.  This will not only clip the wings of Al – Qaeda, but also help calm Afghanistan to a larger extent. However, this attack may have to happen lot sooner than US may want. This has to be done to help UPA government in India, otherwise there is a chance the hindu nationalists may win next parliamentary elections which can further aggravate terrorism scope in south asia by encouraging Hindu terror.
b) US, UK, Israeli’s could target Pakistan nukes first and simultaneously India could target terror camps in POK and Punjab provinces.
c) Third and unlikely scenarios is pressuring Pakistan army and civillian government into verifiably destroying LeT, JeM etc.

The recent episodes have proven that PPP civilian government is still not in control of Pakistan.
Army and ISI still run a parallel government there in Pakistan. There is no use talking to Pakistani civillian leadership as they may not deliver anything. The civillian leadership in Pakistan has become liability of US rather than offering something to the world via their able leadership. The only Civillian leadership can be strengthened is by undercutting the ISI strength and destroying the terror camps. Also solving Kashmir issue will be key to the over all success in South Asia.

The sure signs of attack on Pakistan can start to show as soon as this week.
India Prime minister convening a meeting with defense and coast guard chiefs is a potent sign.
Keep watching this space.

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Tough posturing on Pakistan more likely — Mumbai terror

With ‘Soft on terrorism’ stigma on the  face of UPA government (read congress party) and the recent Mumbai terror, Manmohan Singh government is all set to steal the show and run with it.  As of now, it appears that BJP has all the ammunition to fire at Congress government and win the state elections in the coming weeks and also parliamentary elections next year. However Congress government will not give BJP an easy run here and can easily turn the ongoing Mumbai terror in its favor and do something before this weekend.

Likely response could be tough posturing against Pakistan and creating war like situation similar to that of 2002 parliament attack. Congress can score many points here in comparison
a) Not negotiating with terrorists for the safe release of hostages even under alleged pressure from US , UK since there are westeners in the group of hostages.
b) Not succumbing to the terrorits demands, UPA government scored another point unlike NDA government which actually released 3 dreaded terrorists during kandahar hijacking incident.
c) UPA can walk extra mile here by pressuring Pakistan to verifiably destroy training camps in Pakistan, POK and also extradite Dawood and LeT chiefs.

All this may take time but the process may start as soon as tomorrow and complete before Parliamentary elections.

Obama administration has to act soon because their strategy for Afghanistan can come under severe strain due to fast changing dynamics in South Asia. Any tough stance from India on Pakistan could alter war on terror on the western borders of Pakistan and soon may go out of control.

America may be forced to intervene and take charge here and this may be exactly what these terrorists may have as one of their goals. Obama’s overtures  on Kashmir may have a lot to do with Mumbai terror. However, this may turn out to be Pakistan’s worst nightmare as America’s intervention may result in destruction of Pakistani terrorist infrastructure including LeT, JeM.

UPA has got a golden oppurtunity to change the image of ‘Soft on Terror’ and this may become BJP’s worst nightmare too.

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What a joke

When we say that terrorists were heavily prepared, it only means one thing and that is, we were napping.

If terrorists could use sea route, it also means, our navy is napping and sea sick. If terrorists have become that sophisticated, it only indicates how irrelevant it has become army to army fight between India and Pakistan. Pakistan’s Army and ISI are giving training to their terrorist organizations and sending them over to India. Through this plan, Pakistan civilian government is off the hook and also their country. Also these incidents doesn’t throw enough evidence to point at Pakistan or Bangladesh conclussively because of the nature of people used as terrorists.

India should just goafter the terrorist havens inside Pakistan notwithstanding the fear of their nukes.

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Why not use Taser Guns to capture terrorists alive?

I think Indian government should buy Taser guns and give it to commandos. In such hostage situations as witnessed in Hotels in Mumbai and several times in mosques, Taser guns can be used to knock these terrorists down and make them immovable. However, taser guns can only be used when the culprit is at a short distance. Taser guns generate high voltage in short time and knock the target down in no time. When the target is at a distant, you can use real gun to kill them, but if you happen to encounter a terrorist in short distances you can always use taser guns to catch them alive. So, if you are planning a commando squad to reclaim a site, you need to add one or two commandos with taser guns.

Luckily we could get a terrorist alive and this can help unravel the whole Mumbai terror attacks.

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breaking news: One terrorist caught alive at Oberoi-Trident

It appears that one terrorist was caught alive during commando operation at Oberoi – Trident hotel.
We still don’t have a picture on 9 suspected terrorists caught in yesterday’s operation.

Keep watching this space.

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No confidence in Indian government

I have no faith in our government and no faith in any of our political outfits to secure India from terrorists. Our political outfits belong to yesterday where there was no terrorism. Today the world is beseiged with terrorists who are employed by weak governments and countries to fight stronger governments and countries on their behalf. Our political parties and men are outdated and not prepared for today’s world. Our political parties and men who leave no stone unturned to mimic Gandhi are good at just petty fights and playing robin hood character in doling out subsidies wasting our tax money.

Its pity that the India has witnessed huge tax collections in the past 5 years due to rise in employement and propsperity. Instead of securing this growth by increasing expenditure in internal security and saving money for future, our government spent in central government em,ployees pay hikes, oil subsidies and write offs of farmer loans.

Now, we are left with no money to do infrastructure spending nor there is any money left to secure our cities, Our finance minister is talking about borrowing to spend on infrastructure to help ailing economy. What a pity.

When you experience growth, you hedge it by securing the growth by spending in infrastructure and security to propell that gorwth. Instead, our government was using the increased tax money flow at its will to dole subsidies and begging the western investors to invest in our infrastructure. We proudly talk of competing with China but fail to understand its growth strategy. Whil china was saving its money and now spending in this downturn, we are tsimply talking and looking to borrow to spend money on infrastructure. Wow.

Who will invest in a country that cannot protect itself? What willl happen to our Hotel company stocks? What will happen to our cricket? What will happen to our economy? Where is the confidence?

Not withstanding the gloomy state affairs, our opposition parties are asking government to drop oil prices. What a shame? To top it all, our government is going to reduce oil prices just before elections.

When terrorists are using sea route and brazenly taking over Mumbai, the whole country is clueless about this incident and have no response. It is shame that future super power and would-be second largest economy in the world has given up its financial capital to few terrorists. What happened to our naval/sea power? What happened to all those billions spent in buying defense equipment?
Why couldn’t we spot the sea boats loaded with terrorists, hand grenades, heavy machine guns and AK-47s?

How could they event enter mumbai city un caught? Don’t we have check posts? Don’t these luxary hotels have security checks at the entrance gates? Don’t these luxary hotels ate Taj and oberoi have video cameras installed?
Part of the blame goes to these luxary hotel management also. Instead of using some of their earnings in installing security equipment, they just want to show fat margins to boost stock prices and pay themselves big. Now look what happened? Reputation earned in the last 100 years has just evaporated in one day. I will sell the stock of these hotel companies as i have no faith in them to protect my investments. These hotels will not get those customers back again.

The blame goes to government in Mumbai and central government. When bunch of terrorists could take over a financial hub like Mumbai, what can we say about our country? Where is the confidence in our government? We have lost our respect in this world? Who will visit Mumbai again or even India?

What will happen to our cricket? We were all laughing when cricket playing nations were cancelling their toors to Pakistan. Look at what happened to us now? Our government was simply sleeping all these days spending all the time to just outbid our opposition parties and trumping them in next elections. Our old mindset political parties are about to breaking our countries nerve and democrarcy.

I lost faith and i don’t no, when it will come back. I am bowing my head in shame. With all due respect to all those killed in Mumbai terror, i am ending this blog post in deep despair.

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India needs security – real security

Enough is enough and iam tired of repeating these words. There should non partisan approach to solving security issue that is currently taking a big toll in India. We want security and not subsidies.

We should spend the tax money in implementing video survillence cameras and real people monitoring them 24 hrs a day. If we can’t spend this much on securing INdia, then it won’t be too long for foreign investors to run out of India. Indian government should spend to save our cities and instill confidence in Indians and foreigners alike. Our political parties should stop bragging each other like UPA and NDA does all the time. Let us join hands and do the talk and then walk the talk.

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Mumbai attacked 80 dead 900 hurt and 15 taken hostage

It is war like situation in mumbai where several terrorists took control of several landmark buildings and locations in their control. As per one news source 9 suspected terrorists are caught , 2 dead and 3 escaped from the army net.

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Indian Rupee could weaken to 60-70 RS for one US Dollar

Dollar Rupee equation is evolving more rapidly. This currency trading is turning out to be more volatile than it should be. This volatility could impact importers and exporters alike and could cause their margins swing hugely.

Anyone with basic economic 101 class can tell that Indian Rupee should get stronger and US dollar to weaken based on economic prospects. However, these days the economic dynamics are pushed to back burner and other interesting variables are coming to the forefront and are deciding the Currency exchange rates. These variables though are temporary and short term in nature are causing huge disruptions to exporters and importers in India.

Lets discuss this in detail.

Until few months ago, India was pampered to be major economy going forward. The stock market rise and Strength in Rupee reflected that. Indian rupee touched RS 38 (approx) for one dollar.
Indian Commerce minister also increased export targets year over year and we started earning huge amounts foreign currency (especially US dollars). Indians also remitted huge amounts of dollars.

Obviously all those above factors helped strengthen rupee and weaken dollar. Quiet interestingly, there are other factors too that influenced strength of Rupee and stock market gains. Global speculators swamped Indian markets with cheap money (borrowed from Japan, bought dollars, sold dollars in INdia and bought rupees) and invested in all asset classes including Real estate and stock markets.
This sort of created bubble in our markets and this got busted.
Naturally the global speculators sold their assets and are still selling to cover their margin calls elsewhere and are running away. This time, they are selling Rupees and buying dollars causing stock markets to crash and also weaken Indian Rupee. Hence, Indian rupee traced back to RS 50 levels for each US Dollar.
In reality Indian and Chinese markets should have offered a cushion for global investors. Instead, markets are collapsing due to sell off by speculators. Also, one more issue compounding Indian markets is, our companies have huge debt obligations to meet. They borrowed heavily in dollars denominated in Yen. As Yen strengthens, their debt obligations rise and also interest payments.

Also, refinancing those debts in current markets is very difficult. This is where Indian government should step in and help refinance our Indian companies debt at cheaper rates. This will also put our Dollar reserves to good use.

Coming  back to  Dollar Rupee fluctuations…..
With IT exports diminishing due to US markets collapse and also collapse of other export segments like textiles etc, dollar inflow will be drastically reduced in coming months and years. Also, India imports more than it exports and all these imports are funded via dollars. So,there will be huge dollar demand in India. This alone will drive rupee to 60-70 levels in coming months.

RBI will be biggest buyer of dollars and Rupee keeps weakening. As long as Dollar retains its status of global trading currency, Indian Rupee has a chance to weaken further.

Any drop in US sovereign bond rating or efforts to replace dollar as global trading currency will result in Dollar crash. The mounting US trade deficit and mounting public and government debt will also add to dollar crash.
This will automatically strengthen Indian Rupee.

Any drop in Indian Sovereign bond rating, defaults from major companies with huge external debts etc could weaken Rupee and also cost of borrowing.

Keep watching this space for further updates

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G20 summit outcome could benefit China alone.

Highlights:
1) China could emerge as global financial superpower
2) India may have lost a golden opportunity because of its stretched balance sheet.

As i write G20 meeting is going on and unfortunately as expected there may not be major role for India in new global financial order. The probability of India having a say is not completely ruled out,but chances are very less for variety of reasons, if Dollar retains its status of global trading currency.

China may emerge as single country that could benefit in the ongoing G20 summit and it can play the game to ensure that Dollar doesn’t loose its strength. This way it can safeguard its huge pile of dollar reserves and suppress Gold for long time to come. It can use its reserves to help and lend to countries on the brink of defaulting and can play a major role globally. This way it can continue to export and help its ailing manufacturing sector and continue to pile dollar reserves but at reduced rate still dwarfing other countries.

India on the other hand has little dollar reserves and cannot lend to other countries on a scale China can afford to do. Also the rate at which it can increase the dollar reserves will be hugely impacted due to its reduced IT exports. India doesn’t have a diversified export sector earning dollars like that of China.

India in hay days didn’t save enough and improved its balance sheet. Our government spent on subsidies just like an youngster spent using his credit cards. Thus India has lost once in a lifetime chance to play a major role in global financial system.

However, if multi currency system takes shape replacing Dollar, then India may have a upper hand.
India now has to look inwards and save its export sector so that jobs can be saved otherwise UPA (especially congress) can loose in elections.

Lets wait for G20 outcome and iam not expecting any fundamental or structural change in global financial order immediately anyways.

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